Aviva‘s (LSE:AV.) one of many FTSE 100 shares that have soared amid rising hopes of interest rate cuts. But it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Bank of England (BoE) benchmark rate will topple, as many now expect. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently cautioned that UK interest rates should remain at current levels until inflationary pressures recede. BoE rate-setters also overwhelmingly share this conservative view. It’s why they kept rates locked at 5.25% at the last meeting by a vote of eight-to-one. Consumer price inflation (CPI) is falling in the UK, and dropped to two-year lows of 3.2% in March. But price rises aren’t moderating as fast as some hope, and may remain above the BoE’s 3% target for longer than the market has priced in. Wage growth continues to run hot, while new Brexit import charges are tipped to add 0.2% to CPI over the next three years. At the same time, growing tension in the Middle East could send oil prices to fresh multi-year highs. So what would this mean for Aviva? Customer demand for financial services could remain muted if inflation and interest rates remain at elevated levels. Claims costs may also remain...